+7 (495) 987 43 74

Рус   |   Eng

The journal is directed towards researchers, professors, PhD students and students who are interested in methods and applications of econometrics and applied statistics, as well as specialists in quantitative departments of banks and companies, sociologists, political scientists, marketing analysts, managers, etc.



Consumption dynamics in Russia: Estimates on microdata

The paper investigates household consumption behavior in Russia. The model assumes that household consumption can be determined both by Euler equation and the rule of thumb. Using panel data on households (RLMS–HSE) from 2000 to 2011, we present estimates of elasticity of intertemporal substitution and show that an essential part of households consume constant part of their current income and do not solve optimization problem.

Entrepreneurial activity and economic development: The shape of the relationship

The paper investigates how entrepreneurial activity depends on economic development, measured by GDP per capita. The empirical analysis is based on GEM yearly data on 65 countries for the period from 2001 to 2011. We use nonparametric approach to show that variation in entrepreneurial activity across countries can be explained by U-shaped relationship, the hypothesis of L-shaped relationship is rejected. At the same time the analysis does not reveal any significant relationship between the variables in time within one particular country.

The impact of informality on earnings inequality: unconditional quantile regressions

The author: Lukiyanova A.
In this paper, we investigate the impact of informality on earnings inequality in Russia using the RLMS–HSE data for 2000–2010. We apply decompositions based on the recentered influence functions of unconditional quantiles. Our results confirm that informality increases the earnings polarization widening both tails of the distribution. This effect, albeit small, is statistically significant. Changes in structure and wage effects of informality did not have significant contribution to the decline in overall earnings inequality in 2000–2010, except for a group of workers without permanent job.

Effects of imports on technical efficiency in Russian food industry

The author: Shchetynin E. Y.
In literature there is no single answer to the question, whether the growth of imports in industry leads to decrease or to increase the technical efficiency: possible effect of different mechanisms. In this paper we estimate the stochastic production frontier using firm-level data for food industry in 2005–2011, taking into account a possible relationship between changes in imports and firm’s technical efficiency. We use the «Ruslana» (Bureau van Dijk) database, which contains financial information on companies in Russia. Our results show that in food industry technical efficiency is reducing while import share is increasing.

Estimation of effects of transport accessibility on housing prices

The author: Sidorovykh A.
The paper analyzes the key determinants of real estate prices in Perm, with special attention to transport accessibility indicators. The issue of transport accessibility modeling is discussed. The valuation of price hedonic model revealed that housing prices in Perm are affected mostly by the area of the apartment, the fact of its location on the first floor, number of public transport routes in the district, and time to the city centre.

Macroeconometric modeling of the Russian and Armenian economy

The paper is the first part of the study which is devoted to the analysis of the macroeconomic trends in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia in the period 1995–2011 and the development of the aggregated macroeconometric models of the national economies of these two countries. We use the two-stage approach to construction of econometric relationships: at the 1st stage dynamic models are found aimed at the theoretical description of the evolution of the most important sectors of the economy, and at the 2nd stage the econometric model of the national economy is created based upon cointegration and regression type of econometric relationships, as well as the balance type equations between the key economic indicators. The system of these equations enables us to analyze objective long-term trends, and to take into account short-term and middle-term effects of macroeconomic «shocks», so called macroeconomic projections.

The economy of Russia in multipolar world

The author: Lapo V. F.
There have been several poles of development: USA, Europe, and China are formatted in the world economy. How does the multipolar world economy influence the Russian economy’s development? The studies based on the main results of new economic geography and gravity theory concerning the spatial concentration of production in the economy of countries and large regions. We propose the econometric model of industrial production, employment, investment, and income under expectation about the multipolar world economy. Results of estimation give proof to significant influence of world economic poles on development of the Russian economy.

Modeling reasons for Russian bank license withdrawal: Unaccounted factors

The author: Peresetsky A.
In the paper we analyze the reasons of Russian bank license withdrawal, formulated in orders of CB RF at the period 2005.2–2008.4. During this period, after establishing deposit insurance system in Russia, two main reasons were «money laundering» and «financial insolvency». We design binary choice logit models and multinomial logit models to model probability of license withdrawal one year ahead of the event. We use in model macro indicators to control for the varying economic environment and bank-specific financial indicators taken one year before the observation of the bank status. The models reveal factors important for the prediction of the license withdrawal, which are found to be different for the two reasons. Also we investigate if multinomial model outperform binary model in the bank license withdrawal forecast. We consider dynamics of impact of unaccounted factors, including human factor.