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№ 2(30) 12 june 2013 year
Rubric: Macroeconomics
Authors: Ajvazyan S., Brodskij B., Manukyan D. E., Sandoyan E. M., Voskanyan M. A.

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The paper is the first part of the study which is devoted to the analysis of the macroeconomic trends in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia in the period 1995–2011 and the development of the aggregated macroeconometric models of the national economies of these two countries. We use the two-stage approach to construction of econometric relationships: at the 1st stage dynamic models are found aimed at the theoretical description of the evolution of the most important sectors of the economy, and at the 2nd stage the econometric model of the national economy is created based upon cointegration and regression type of econometric relationships, as well as the balance type equations between the key economic indicators. The system of these equations enables us to analyze objective long-term trends, and to take into account short-term and middle-term effects of macroeconomic «shocks», so called macroeconomic projections.
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№ 2(30) 12 june 2013 year
Rubric: Regions
The author: Lapo V. F.

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There have been several poles of development: USA, Europe, and China are formatted in the world economy. How does the multipolar world economy influence the Russian economy’s development? The studies based on the main results of new economic geography and gravity theory concerning the spatial concentration of production in the economy of countries and large regions. We propose the econometric model of industrial production, employment, investment, and income under expectation about the multipolar world economy. Results of estimation give proof to significant influence of world economic poles on development of the Russian economy.
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№ 2(30) 12 june 2013 year
Rubric: Banks
The author: Peresetsky A.

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In the paper we analyze the reasons of Russian bank license withdrawal, formulated in orders of CB RF at the period 2005.2–2008.4. During this period, after establishing deposit insurance system in Russia, two main reasons were «money laundering» and «financial insolvency». We design binary choice logit models and multinomial logit models to model probability of license withdrawal one year ahead of the event. We use in model macro indicators to control for the varying economic environment and bank-specific financial indicators taken one year before the observation of the bank status. The models reveal factors important for the prediction of the license withdrawal, which are found to be different for the two reasons. Also we investigate if multinomial model outperform binary model in the bank license withdrawal forecast. We consider dynamics of impact of unaccounted factors, including human factor.
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№ 2(30) 12 june 2013 year
Rubric: Banks
Authors: Nivorozhkina L., Ovcharova L. N., Sinyavskaya T. G.

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The paper regards problems of risk estimation in consumer lending and credit scoring. Econometric bivariate probit models estimated on GGS data are used to evaluate risk of having bank debt on condition that household have bank loan. The results allow profiling safe and unsafe borrowers.
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№ 2(30) 12 june 2013 year
Rubric: Financial markets
The author: Isakov A. V.

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In this article we propose a modification of time-series segmentation algorithm which allows to identify homogenous periods of money market history by clustering multidimensional probability distributions of relevant variables. We provide step-by-step instructions to systematically choose how many distinct states of the nominal variable is sufficient for precise description of the money market historical conditions and hintat variables which might be suitable for monitoring money market form a central bank’s point of view.
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№ 2(30) 12 june 2013 year
Rubric: Education
Authors: Zamkov O. O., Peresetsky A.

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Starting from 2008, the admission to the BSc program at the ICEF (NRU HSE) is done by the UNE results. 2008 was a transition year: both UNE and internal HSE exams results were counted. Since 2009 the regulations stay stable — only the UNE and Olympiads’ results have been taken into account. In the article the academic success factors for the students admitted in 2009–2011, after 1, 2, and 3 years of study, are analyzed. It has been shown that the students — Olympiads’ winners consistently show better results than other students, other factors equal. The UNE results are still significant for academic performance forecast after 3 years of study. But the final rating of the student after the first year accumulates almost completely the information which the UNE and Olympiads results contain. Region of a student’s school is not significant and gender is marginally significant for future academic performance.
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№ 2(30) 12 june 2013 year
Rubric: Industry
The author: Varshavskij L. E.

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Analysis of external and internal factors influencing significant improvement of economic indicators of US nuclear power stations in the 1990s is carried out. Approaches to modeling dynamics of capacity factors of nuclear power stations are proposed. Comparative analysis of dynamics of capacity factors and occupational radiation exposure for various generations of US nuclear power plants is carried out. Dynamical characteristics of «learning by doing» effects for analyzed indicators are measured.
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№ 3(31) 16 september 2013 year
Rubric: Macroeconomics
Authors: Ajvazyan S., Brodskij B., Manukyan D. E., Sandoyan E. M., Voskanyan M. A.

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This study is aimed at creation of the macroeconometric models of the key macro-indices of the national economics of Russia and Armenia: GDP, inflation, export and import, the average wage, etc. The choice of predictors of these models is made according to findings from theoretical models developed in the first part of this paper. Methodology of econometric research for non-stationary time series (the majority of macroindicators of these models) is based upon the two-stage procedure of cointegration analysis proposed by Engle and Granger (1987). At the first stage we build long-run cointegration equations aimed at description of stable and long-lasting macrofactors of macroeconomic policy and external trade which influence the dynamics of key macroeconomic indices. At the second stage we build error correction models for taking into account short run factors (seasonality, etc.) influencing these dynamics.

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№ 3(31) 16 september 2013 year
Rubric: Macroeconomics
The author: Lifshic M. L.

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Long-term economic growth models for the world countries (1970–2012) are presented in the article. The dynamics of the ratio of GDP to the size of age-group 15–64 is used as a dependent variable. The study shows that the influence of migration and demographic indicators upon economic growth depends on the level of natural reproduction of labor force in the countries of destination and of origin. The model for Russia (1998–2013) takes into account the quarterly dynamics and oil prices.

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№ 3(31) 16 september 2013 year
Rubric: Society
The author:

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This paper extends research on the relation between crime and happiness by investigating the impact of serious and less serious crime (i.e. incorrect behavior) on subjective well-being using a representative survey of the Dutch adult population in 2008. We also control for variables reflecting trust, health and social norms, in addition to standard demographic and socio-economic characteristics. We find that people who feel healthy, have more trust in others and have higher social norms are in general happier. We find evidence of an indirect effect of victimization on well-being via trust, health and social norms. The remaining effect of victimization on well-being, keeping trust, social norms, and health constant, is quite weak.

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